Once Again Im Around Rushing Back in Style

Derrick Henry among top ten RBs exceeding expected rushing yards

Published: Jul 21, 2020 at 12:53 PM

This offseason, the virtually unusual of all offseasons, produced a new metric.

That'due south right, folks. From the quarantine emerged a new statistic that might finally divide offensive line play from running back: expected yards per carry.

Similar expected completion percentage and expected grab rate, expected yards per deport volition help isolate the individual functioning of an offensive histrion -- in this instance, the ball-carrier -- from the circumstances around him, including the effectiveness of his blockers. For those of us who accept spent whatsoever amount of time lined up over or alongside the football, this is joyful news. Taking into business relationship defensive alignment, the number of defenders in the box versus number of blockers and other primal factors, nosotros now have a metric that volition help provide quantitative proof of an offensive line's effectiveness separate from rushing-yardage totals.

Certain, information technology still sounds equally if the running back is tied to the metric, but it also reflects the performance of the run-blockers on an individual play, because information technology tells you how many yards the ball-carrier should accept gained based on the situation around him on the field at the moment of handoff, including the positioning of the linemen in relation to defenders. Whether the ball-carrier reaches, exceeds or falls short of his xYPC marker (which is a cumulative average of the expected yards on his private rushes) helps reveal how effectively he plays his role in the symbiotic human relationship between offensive linemen and running backs, while the mark itself tells us about the effectiveness of his supporting bandage.

For example: Adrian Peterson'southward expected-yards-per-carry mark was four, pregnant, in part, Washington's offensive line blocked well plenty for Peterson to choice up 4 yards per attempt. Peterson averaged four.three yards per behave in actual yardage, which is 0.3 more yards per comport than expectation, significant he achieved slightly more than he was expected to. Of his 898 rushing yards (on 211 carries), 64 were gained past his accomplishment higher up expectation (rushing yards over expectation, or RYOE).

Conversely, Devonta Freeman was the worst running back in the NFL terminal year (among those with a minimum of 150 carries) in RYOE, logging a league-low mark of -ane.18 RYOE per rush. Freeman'southward xYPC (expected yards per behave) was four.7, thanks in part to the effectiveness of the Atlanta blockers in front of him, but he only gained iii.6 yards per carry, which suggests his struggles weren't the fault of the offensive line. (Notably, the Falcons produced a 4.44 xYPC for all runners, which was the fourth-best marking in the league.)

As for Freeman's 2020 replacement, in Atlanta, Todd Gurley? Avert your eyes. His RYOE rate of -0.67 per deport with the Rams was 3rd-worst in the entire NFL last season, with simply Peyton Hairdresser standing between Gurley and Freeman at the bottom. The Falcons might not see much comeback on the ground if these numbers agree true in 2020.

And simply so we're clear on these new acronyms for which y'all're about to form new neural pathways, here'south a glossary:

• YPC: Yards per carry
• xYPC: Expected yards per acquit (the baseline metric for blocking effectiveness)
• ERY: Expected rushing yards (total for the season)
• RYOE: Rushing yards over expectation
• RYOE per attempt: Rushing yards over expectation per attempt

So, do you lot understand how this works now? Good. Let'south list the top 10 running backs from 2019 based on functioning relative to expected yards per carry. Exist sure to loosen those thumbs upwardly so y'all don't sprain one while angrily tweeting at me.

2019 stats: 5.1 YPC, 4.0 xYPC, +1.05 RYOE per attempt, 1,207 ERY, 314 RYOE

We shouldn't be surprised, right? All it takes is viewing one Titans game in which Henry almost single-handedly put the opponent abroad -- rumbling right through feeble tackle attempts for first down after starting time downwardly and, somewhen, a will-breaking score or ii -- to know he's doing more than the average back. Equally you'll meet, Henry, who recently signed a well-deserved four-yr, $l million deal with the Titans, was the just running back in the entire league to post a rushing yards over expectation per attempt of more than 1 thousand (1.05) in 2019. Only x running backs in the entire league posted a rate of 0.55 yards or better, and only two were fifty-fifty inside 0.25 yards on average of Henry'due south marker. He was really damn good in 2019, running behind an offensive line that was adequate, just non quite 1,521-rushing-yards-in-a-season good. No, those actress 314 yards between expectation and reality were all Henry's doing. He's the rushing king in more than ways than i, and his ROYE per attempt of 1.08 in 2018 proves he's not just a one-hitting wonder.

2019 stats: 5.0 YPC, 4.1 xYPC, +0.91 RYOE per attempt, 1,224 ERY, 270 RYOE

The NFL in 2019 was ruled on the ground past powerful, explosive brawl-carriers with throwback-style tackle-breaking ability and new-historic period downfield sprinting speed. Some might betoken to legends similar Jim Brown to argue that this isn't anything new, just at least in 2019, just two players filled out the class of the league: Henry and Chubb. The Next Gen Stats bear this out in each key rushing metric, seeing Henry and Chubb lead in rushing yards over expectation (RYOE) and RYOE per attempt. Those pointing to the strength of Chubb's and Henry'due south offensive lines every bit the reason for their success will exist disappointed to learn Cleveland and Tennessee ranked alongside each other in the middle of the pack (T-15th) in xYPC (for all ball-carriers) at 4.13. The running backs simply exceeded expectations by barreling through defenders on an incredibly consistent footing, with Chubb's four.9 yards gained later on close both illustrating his tackle-breaking propensity and placing him atop this entire group in that category. And if this were 2018, we'd all be picking our jaws up off the flooring afterward viewing his RYOE per effort of i.34. No ane else has even sniffed that in the last two years.

2019 stats: 4.viii YPC, 3.ix xYPC, +0.81 RYOE per attempt, 955 ERY, 195 RYOE

I'm of the opinion that Jacobs was robbed of serious consideration for Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2019, and while you might shout "BIASED!!" here, the numbers support my opinion in a strictly numbers-driven piece. Jacobs was every bit good equally his 1,150 yards demonstrated; in fact, he was better. Just ane running back in this top 10 (Carlos Hyde) had a tougher go with his offensive line -- Jacobs' xYPC of iii.9 paints a moving picture of a rusher who shouldn't exist expected to exercise much of annihilation on a per-carry basis. Jacobs instead shattered those expectations, posting a RYOE per attempt of +0.81 and not bad through his expected ceiling of 955 rushing yards. The future is incredibly bright for Jacobs, especially if Las Vegas can block well enough to pause the 4 xYPC threshold up front.

2019 stats: 4.8 YPC, 4.one xYPC, +0.74 RYOE per attempt, 1,168 ERY, 211 RYOE

McCaffrey'south sheer offensive output was incredible in 2019. His mark of nearly 0.75 yards over expectation per attempt landed him in this spot, the last of any runners (among those with a minimum of 150 carries) to break 0.6 RYOE per attempt. He scored the second-virtually rushing touchdowns of anyone on this list, and he did and so while running backside an offensive line that was comparable to those in Cleveland and Tennessee in xYPC (four.1). McCaffrey, who landed on our list of the 10 near explosive runners, was among the well-nigh explosive in this group besides, registering 50 runs of 15-plus mph and 31 rushes of 10-plus yards. A decent amount of that was created by his ability to achieve beyond expectation -- and we didn't fifty-fifty talk nearly his receiving ability.

2019 stats: 4.6 YPC, 4 xYPC, +0.59 RYOE per attempt, 874 ERY, 127 RYOE

Those burdensome Barkley for not posting superb rushing numbers for a second straight flavour aren't giving him a fair shake. This is the beauty of expected rushing yards. Fifty-fifty when a runner barely breaks 1,000 yards, his RYOE tin can show us how he'southward still excelling amid his circumstances. Barkley's yards per game cruel slightly from his rookie mark of 81.7, merely his triple-digit RYOE proves he's still playing better than expected, based on how his line is blocking for him. Barkley'south totals announced a little deflated because he only appeared in 13 games, just his RYOE still stands -- particularly on a per-attempt basis. Give him 16 good for you games and meliorate offensive-line play, and his traditional stats -- yous know, the rushing totals people gush over -- should jump, even if his RYOE dips a flake.

2019 stats: iv.4 YPC, three.ix xYPC, +0.52 RYOE per attempt, 1,085 ERY, 145 RYOE

Carson joined McCaffrey on our list of most explosive runners with the final but definitely not least position, and so it shouldn't be a huge surprise to run into him in this group, as well. Anyone who watched Seattle perform down the stretch without him also won't be stunned to meet the numbers tell us what we also saw with our own eyes: Carson achieved in a higher place expectation in 2019. The 222-pound running dorsum runs with a speed that matches his five-11 frame but a power that looks more than like it came from someone rumbling around 235 pounds. The key indicator of a tackle-breaker -- yards gained after close -- puts Carson in a group occupied merely by Henry, Chubb and Jacobs among those on this list: those breaking iv YGAC (Carson's mark of iv.three is tertiary-best amongst those four). He's one of the lesser-known names who is an important slice of a contending team. In fact, I'd venture as far as to call Carson the key to unlocking a backfield jammed upwards since the departure of Marshawn Lynch (2019 cameo even so).

2019 stats: 5.1 YPC, 4.6 xYPC, +0.51 RYOE per attempt, 903 ERY, 101 RYOE

It'southward funny; when toying with minimum-carry thresholds, I noticed Ingram's teammate Gus Edwards outperformed him in RYOE per endeavor -- simply on nearly 100 fewer attempts. We bumped it upwardly to 150 to get a meliorate picture of those receiving consistent carries, and of course, Ingram, the atomic number 82 back (though non the lead rusher) of the NFL's best rushing criminal offense, appeared in the top 10. The wild statistic that yous won't find anywhere else on this listing was Ingram's astronomical 4.6 xYPC, an indicator of the Ravens' highly successful offensive line. (Spoiler warning: They're No. one in that category, a stat we'll explore deeper in a separate piece.) With a number like that, it'due south really difficult to country nearly the summit of RYOE per endeavour, because the flooring is already higher than everyone else's. For some perspective, merely two backs matched Ingram's YPC of v.1: Derrick Henry and the Bills' Devin Singletary. And though Buffalo won't land atop the offensive-line rankings (we'll get to that subsequently), Singletary had an even higher xYPC and just 151 carries, a formula for an constructive campaign only likewise one that falls brusk of this list. Anyhow, Ingram is fantabulous, which nosotros all knew as before long as we saw the Ravens run into a brick wall in the playoffs, when Ingram wasn't running at 100 percent.

2019 stats: 4.3 YPC, 3.8 xYPC, +0.48 RYOE per effort, 922 ERY, 116 RYOE

Hyde, who signed with Seattle this offseason, traveled a loma steeper than anyone else on this list during his time with the Texans last yr. Houston's offensive line helped account for an ugly 3.8 xYPC -- the 2d-lowest xYPC in the unabridged NFL -- all the same Hyde still constitute a way to make lemonade out of lemons. His 4.3 yards-per-carry mark is, if adequate, also the lowest mark of anyone on this listing, merely when considering what the expectation was, his 116 yards RYOE prove he was at least doing his chore, if not more. Hyde isn't among the league's elite backs -- he's the simply back on this list with a ten-plus-yard run per centum below ten percent -- but for a squad in need of a pb runner, he fulfilled his duties at a satisfactory level.

Jacksonville Jaguars · RB

2019 stats: 4.4 YPC, three.9 xYPC, +0.47 RYOE per attempt, 1,027 ERY, 124 RYOE

Here lies a unique instance in which the RYOE per endeavour departure knocked Fournette down when he essentially led the homo above him in every other category. We can explicate that by virtue of Fournette'southward extra 21 carries compared to Hyde, which diluted Fournette'southward totals ever so slightly. The residue of his marks put him amongst the rest of the grade, with his 11.7 10-plus-yard run pct falling short of just Barkley, Henry and Chubb. Fournette is another back who was battling through a flavour in which his offensive line wasn't quite opening enough room for him to intermission through 4 yards per behave without a piffling additional effort on his own, but that didn't stop him from finishing with more than 1,100 rushing yards in a season that was largely lost, from an organizational perspective. We'll come across if he gets more assist in 2020.

2019 stats: iv.5 YPC, 4.ane xYPC, +0.41 RYOE per effort, ane,034 ERY, 101 RYOE

Melt's success, as we all know, came as a upshot of way blended with personal prowess. The Vikings committed to the zone run with Melt as their atomic number 82 man and a line capable of opening lanes for him, and he took information technology the rest of the way on his own, scoring 13 rushing touchdowns (3rd-most on this list) and posting the only rush efficiency mark in a higher place 4 in this entire group (rush efficiency is the distance traveled by the ball-carrier on a run play divided by the net yards gained). This offense was constructive considering of its line, and fifty-fifty more so because of Melt'due south efforts. As for explosiveness, no one had more than fifteen-plus mph runs in this group than Cook (past a broad margin), who had 73.

ADDITIONAL NOTE:

Kenyan Drake would've been in the top 10 had he not split his 2019 season between Miami and Arizona, which broke his total carries into two disproportionate groups that disqualified him from the 150-bear minimum threshold. It'due south tough to describe strong conclusions about Drake's apparent underperformance in Miami, where he had a league-boilerplate xYPC of four.three but struggled to crack iv yards per comport -- scheme and depression usage totals (47 carries in six games) could exist a factor. But it's clear that when Drake moved to Arizona, where he rushed confronting loaded boxes just 23.eight percent of the fourth dimension (compared to 27.vii percent in Miami) and against eight-plus defenders just 8.2 percent of the time (compared to 10.6 in Miami), play-calling created better opportunities for Drake to exploit his speed.

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Source: https://www.nfl.com/news/derrick-henry-among-top-10-rbs-exceeding-expected-rushing-yards

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